Tuesday, January 8, 2008

A race effect?

Is it possible that Obama underperformed in NH because more people said they would vote for a black man than actually would? I doubt that was worth ten points, but it might have been something.

Notably, there was no such effect in Iowa, which was a public caucus. There'd be a stigma at a caucus for publicly saying you wouldn't vote for a black man. Behind the ballot booth, people can do what they want.

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